This week the coffee market continued its wild ride, and roasters who’ve been waiting for a steep market decline may be in for a tough lesson.
In late February, prices dipped below $3.80. The price drop offered a glimmer of hope to roasters holding out for a strong decline. But, March roared in and prices soared, fueled by concerns over the shrinking supply of coffee from Brazil and Vietnam. Additionally, the new tariffs on all goods imported from Mexico and Canada have spooked more than just the coffee industry spooked. As of the publication of this post, the tariffs are delayed until April ’25. We do not know how it will play out, but the tariffs could impact both decaf and conventional coffee prices.
Blending fresh roasted coffee in bins. Img by hsyncoban from Getty Images Signature
Risk Management in a Volatile Market
Let’s be real: waiting for the market to drop is not a strategy—it’s a gamble. Some roasters have held off on buying, hoping for lower prices, only to find themselves scrambling when costs spike again. At the end of the day, every business is accountable for its own decisions.
The key? Smart risk management
- Don’t overextend your coverage, but secure the coffee you know you need before you need it.
- Use Genuine Origin’s flexible model to your advantage:
- If you want to play it safe, order just one or two boxes at a time.
- If you think prices will keep climbing, buy more now and take advantage of the market and our quantity discounts (you can save 30 cents per pound when you purchase any 24 boxes!).
- Lock in prices for up to 90 days using the shipment date calendar at checkout. If you pay with a credit card, you won’t be charged until your coffee ships.
Img – stocksnap from Pixabay
Your Customers Expect Higher Coffee Prices
If there’s a silver lining in all this, it’s that customers already see coffee prices rising in the news. Many roasters have already adjusted their pricing, and consumer expectations are shifting accordingly. If you need some help talking to your customers about rising prices, we put together some key discussion points for you.
Img – by pixelshot
Final Thoughts: You Can’t Sell What You Don’t Have
Even the biggest roasters have fallen into the trap of waiting too long—leaving them scrambling for supply at even higher prices. Don’t let that be you. The reality is simple:
- You can’t sell what you don’t roast.
- You can’t roast what you don’t buy.
Make the right call for your business today—before the market makes it for you. And remember, our team is here for you. We are committed to working through this period together.
